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Author Topic: Days since DFT dropped  (Read 20103 times)
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 12:52:04 pm »

Wtf is this crying about loot, you little pussy ass bitches. The amount of superstition and paranoia in this thread is too damn high.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 12:54:21 pm by Strawie » Logged

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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 12:53:29 pm »

Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..
Had the same in GGC
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 12:57:38 pm »

Have anybody tested if the bug from Majordomo works at 4HM?

Just curious...
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Felicitas
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2016, 12:58:57 pm »

Have anybody tested if the bug from Majordomo works at 4HM?

Just curious...
Doesn't, of course, not the same chest mechanics.
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Simply Fadeas
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2016, 01:24:49 pm »

Should change Guild for Trinkets ;-)
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2016, 01:36:31 pm »

We've had bad luck with caster chests from 4h, but last 3 kills we had 4 so its starting to look better. Meanwhile we dont get war/rog anymore. Hunter/druid is going to trials atm
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2016, 01:56:58 pm »

Despite DP being my guild and it being frustrating that DFT hasn't dropped for us. I have always referenced the drop chance listed on the database and that it is more than possible for us to be simply extremely unlucky.

As it works currently there is 1 loot group on the dragon consisting of all 21 items with drop chance split equally among them. This same loot group is rolled 2 times on each kill.

This means you have a 1/21 (4.76%) chance for any one item dropping on each of the 2 rolls.

Therefore is a 1-(1-1/21)^2 (9.29%) chance to get at least one DFT each week with (0.23%) to get 2 drop and (9.03%) chance to get 1 drop.

When starting out with the intent to complete 54 kills/rolls with 9.29% odds each time you would statistically expect the probability of at least one drop to be 1-(1-0.0929)^54 (99.48%).

So yea we hit the jackpot guys and managed to roll out in the last 0.52%.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 02:17:13 pm by Ralicx » Logged
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« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2016, 02:23:55 pm »

Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?
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Join the Chaos journey !

Hi Cohle - https://prnt.sc/js35ys
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« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2016, 02:26:01 pm »

Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  Cool Cool Cool
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Bear with me...
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« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2016, 02:26:20 pm »

Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?

Not on VG afaik
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Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #25 on: July 15, 2016, 02:27:06 pm »

Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  Cool Cool Cool

Come DP on Empada and you get prio on end of dreams over Fallow Smiley
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Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2016, 02:28:06 pm »

Unfortunately ladies and gents, Erga is right, as is Nizhrak,

its unfortunate, improbable but not impossible.
Just accept it and keep clearing.

While it's tempting to believe in loot-conspiracies etc... it's not at all useful.
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« Reply #27 on: July 15, 2016, 02:34:56 pm »

I heard that having http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=3300 in your inventory drastically increases the dropchance on any desired item.
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« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2016, 02:43:14 pm »

Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  Cool Cool Cool

Come DP on Empada and you get prio on end of dreams over Fallow Smiley


LOL

Seems legit!
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Bear with me...
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« Reply #29 on: July 15, 2016, 03:00:06 pm »

Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?

Yes you can. The chance is very low though, about 0.23% on a 21 item table rolled twice; See my previous post.
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