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Author Topic: Days since DFT dropped  (Read 24987 times)
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« on: July 15, 2016, 06:52:46 am »

http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=19406

<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

SOUNDS BLIZZLIKE

STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE

DP HAS CLEARED BWL EVERYWEEK FOR LIKE 3+ YEARS

3 dropped in 2013, 1 dropped in 2014, 2 dropped in 2015. Zero in 2016.

Fix the drop rates. Stop having server crashes when DP is in BWL.
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 07:55:01 am »

+1 your absolutely right .
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 08:21:42 am »

Yup, something's fishy going on as always since we were just about to kill dragons and server crashed. Erga explain please

It is unbelieveable how we had zero DFT's in 2016 while space disco had 3 in 1 month, chaos 5, ggc 2, equilibrium 2 ,chinese 3 or 4 etc...

Please fix the fucking bwl dragons loot table
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 08:27:20 am by Gnoem » Logged

Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 08:51:48 am »

You should do this in terms of weeks not days.
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 09:25:17 am »

Unique in 2014 had two maces from c'thun while in 2016 five dropped only between january and april.

It's just a matter of luck.

GGC had DFT drop on "pug". Maybe try it as well?
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 09:32:04 am »

Ggc also had 2 or 3 dft's in regular run in this year. We also tried a "pug" last night and same bullshit loot as always.
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Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 09:44:38 am »

You should do this in terms of weeks not days.

You want weeks?

<Space Disco> = less than 1 week

<Chaos> = almost 3 weeks

<De Profundis> = almost 58 weeks

It is statistically impossible for zero DFTs to drop in 58 weeks from a boss with a loot table of 21 items. It just cannot be right.

It appears that so called 'weaker' or less geared guilds receive the more favourable loot drops from bosses in all instances, but higher end raiding guilds do not - while killing the same bosses week in week out, with the same RNG system used to decide what piece(s) of loot drop. Either something is broken, or something else is going on...
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 10:04:32 am »

Explanation?

Dropchance is lets say 5% (not sure if this is the actual droprate).
If it doesnt drop, the drop doesnt get more likely to drop next week. It will still be 5%. It will not be 5+x%, because it didnt drop yet. The lootpool does not remember drops from previous weeks. Because every week the boss spits out loot from the same refreshed pool with the same likelyhoods.

It is not more likely (%-wise) to get an item in the following week, but always the same.

But you are right, with rising sample rate, you should normally approach the goal-drop-percentage. You had bad luck.
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 10:16:52 am »

Explanation?

Dropchance is lets say 5% (not sure if this is the actual droprate).
If it doesnt drop, the drop doesnt get more likely to drop next week. It will still be 5%. It will not be 5+x%, because it didnt drop yet. The lootpool does not remember drops from previous weeks. Because every week the boss spits out loot from the same refreshed pool with the same likelyhoods.

It is not more likely (%-wise) to get an item in the following week, but always the same.

But you are right, with rising sample rate, you should normally approach the goal-drop-percentage. You had bad luck.

How about fixing the percentage then? Cuz 5% is too low and it should have same drop rate as all the other loot?!
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 10:25:59 am by Gnoem » Logged

Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 10:18:49 am »

It appears that so called 'weaker' or less geared guilds receive the more favourable loot drops from bosses in all instances, but higher end raiding guilds do not - while killing the same bosses week in week out, with the same RNG system used to decide what piece(s) of loot drop. Either something is broken, or something else is going on...

That thought has crossed my mind aswell. Perhaps its just a coincidence, but when I first rolled rogue and was pre-raid geared. I was the RL in AQ40 and we got a BiS drop from every boss in that run. (hit cloak, tank ring, badge, robe + shoulder, nr legs, ring, OH, gun, Scepter)

And in the meantime GGC has in total had 3 Iblis drops..
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 10:47:21 am »

math should be:

- 5% dropchance --> 95% chance not to drop --> 0.95^58 = 0.051


This means the chance of not getting a single drop out of 58 attempts is about 5.1% .. badluck but not impossible.
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 11:33:16 am »

just release frost wing so DFT becomes obsolete.
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 11:36:22 am »

just release frost wing so DFT becomes obsolete.

I bet slayer's crest wont even stack with kots cuz VG
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Likalottapus <De Profundis>
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 12:05:51 pm »

Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 12:47:21 pm »

Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..
Not to mention that Desecrated Breastplate is supposed to have less drop rate than Desecrated Robe and Desecrated Tunic, yet we had x2 Desecrated Breastplate drop in one chest and vice-versa with Desecrated Tunic one, and not a single Desecrated Robe for over 8 Four Horsemen kills which is practicaly impossible.
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