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Off-Topic => Anything Goes => Topic started by: Zzsszzsszz on July 15, 2016, 06:52:46 am



Title: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Zzsszzsszz on July 15, 2016, 06:52:46 am
http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=19406

<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

SOUNDS BLIZZLIKE

STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE

DP HAS CLEARED BWL EVERYWEEK FOR LIKE 3+ YEARS

3 dropped in 2013, 1 dropped in 2014, 2 dropped in 2015. Zero in 2016.

Fix the drop rates. Stop having server crashes when DP is in BWL.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Shredr on July 15, 2016, 07:55:01 am
+1 your absolutely right .


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 08:21:42 am
Yup, something's fishy going on as always since we were just about to kill dragons and server crashed. Erga explain please

It is unbelieveable how we had zero DFT's in 2016 while space disco had 3 in 1 month, chaos 5, ggc 2, equilibrium 2 ,chinese 3 or 4 etc...

Please fix the fucking bwl dragons loot table


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: OutBlunted on July 15, 2016, 08:51:48 am
You should do this in terms of weeks not days.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Nela on July 15, 2016, 09:25:17 am
Unique in 2014 had two maces from c'thun while in 2016 five dropped only between january and april.

It's just a matter of luck.

GGC had DFT drop on "pug". Maybe try it as well?


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 09:32:04 am
Ggc also had 2 or 3 dft's in regular run in this year. We also tried a "pug" last night and same bullshit loot as always.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Dvsblade on July 15, 2016, 09:44:38 am
You should do this in terms of weeks not days.

You want weeks?

<Space Disco> = less than 1 week

<Chaos> = almost 3 weeks

<De Profundis> = almost 58 weeks

It is statistically impossible for zero DFTs to drop in 58 weeks from a boss with a loot table of 21 items. It just cannot be right.

It appears that so called 'weaker' or less geared guilds receive the more favourable loot drops from bosses in all instances, but higher end raiding guilds do not - while killing the same bosses week in week out, with the same RNG system used to decide what piece(s) of loot drop. Either something is broken, or something else is going on...


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Ergamemnon on July 15, 2016, 10:04:32 am
Explanation?

Dropchance is lets say 5% (not sure if this is the actual droprate).
If it doesnt drop, the drop doesnt get more likely to drop next week. It will still be 5%. It will not be 5+x%, because it didnt drop yet. The lootpool does not remember drops from previous weeks. Because every week the boss spits out loot from the same refreshed pool with the same likelyhoods.

It is not more likely (%-wise) to get an item in the following week, but always the same.

But you are right, with rising sample rate, you should normally approach the goal-drop-percentage. You had bad luck.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 10:16:52 am
Explanation?

Dropchance is lets say 5% (not sure if this is the actual droprate).
If it doesnt drop, the drop doesnt get more likely to drop next week. It will still be 5%. It will not be 5+x%, because it didnt drop yet. The lootpool does not remember drops from previous weeks. Because every week the boss spits out loot from the same refreshed pool with the same likelyhoods.

It is not more likely (%-wise) to get an item in the following week, but always the same.

But you are right, with rising sample rate, you should normally approach the goal-drop-percentage. You had bad luck.

How about fixing the percentage then? Cuz 5% is too low and it should have same drop rate as all the other loot?!


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Alda on July 15, 2016, 10:18:49 am
It appears that so called 'weaker' or less geared guilds receive the more favourable loot drops from bosses in all instances, but higher end raiding guilds do not - while killing the same bosses week in week out, with the same RNG system used to decide what piece(s) of loot drop. Either something is broken, or something else is going on...

That thought has crossed my mind aswell. Perhaps its just a coincidence, but when I first rolled rogue and was pre-raid geared. I was the RL in AQ40 and we got a BiS drop from every boss in that run. (hit cloak, tank ring, badge, robe + shoulder, nr legs, ring, OH, gun, Scepter)

And in the meantime GGC has in total had 3 Iblis drops..


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Nizhrak on July 15, 2016, 10:47:21 am
math should be:

- 5% dropchance --> 95% chance not to drop --> 0.95^58 = 0.051


This means the chance of not getting a single drop out of 58 attempts is about 5.1% .. badluck but not impossible.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: sveznajucastena on July 15, 2016, 11:33:16 am
just release frost wing so DFT becomes obsolete.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 11:36:22 am
just release frost wing so DFT becomes obsolete.

I bet slayer's crest wont even stack with kots cuz VG


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Drakan on July 15, 2016, 12:05:51 pm
Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Fadeas on July 15, 2016, 12:47:21 pm
Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..
Not to mention that Desecrated Breastplate (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22349) is supposed to have less drop rate than Desecrated Robe (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22351) and Desecrated Tunic (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22350), yet we had x2 Desecrated Breastplate (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22349) drop in one chest and vice-versa with Desecrated Tunic (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22350) one, and not a single Desecrated Robe (http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22351) for over 8 Four Horsemen kills which is practicaly impossible.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Strawie on July 15, 2016, 12:52:04 pm
Wtf is this crying about loot, you little pussy ass bitches. The amount of superstition and paranoia in this thread is too damn high.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Biological / Gorgeuss on July 15, 2016, 12:53:29 pm
Same goes to caster t3. DP had about 7 or 8 consecutive 4hm kills sofar without a single caster t3 chest..
Had the same in GGC


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Shaken on July 15, 2016, 12:57:38 pm
Have anybody tested if the bug from Majordomo works at 4HM?

Just curious...


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Fadeas on July 15, 2016, 12:58:57 pm
Have anybody tested if the bug from Majordomo works at 4HM?

Just curious...
Doesn't, of course, not the same chest mechanics.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Exzy on July 15, 2016, 01:24:49 pm
Should change Guild for Trinkets ;-)


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Alda on July 15, 2016, 01:36:31 pm
We've had bad luck with caster chests from 4h, but last 3 kills we had 4 so its starting to look better. Meanwhile we dont get war/rog anymore. Hunter/druid is going to trials atm


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Ralicx on July 15, 2016, 01:56:58 pm
Despite DP being my guild and it being frustrating that DFT hasn't dropped for us. I have always referenced the drop chance listed on the database and that it is more than possible for us to be simply extremely unlucky.

As it works currently there is 1 loot group on the dragon consisting of all 21 items with drop chance split equally among them. This same loot group is rolled 2 times on each kill.

This means you have a 1/21 (4.76%) chance for any one item dropping on each of the 2 rolls.

Therefore is a 1-(1-1/21)^2 (9.29%) chance to get at least one DFT each week with (0.23%) to get 2 drop and (9.03%) chance to get 1 drop.

When starting out with the intent to complete 54 kills/rolls with 9.29% odds each time you would statistically expect the probability of at least one drop to be 1-(1-0.0929)^54 (99.48%).

So yea we hit the jackpot guys and managed to roll out in the last 0.52%.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Ayag on July 15, 2016, 02:23:55 pm
Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Empada on July 15, 2016, 02:26:01 pm
Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  8) 8) 8)


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 02:26:20 pm
Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?

Not on VG afaik


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on July 15, 2016, 02:27:06 pm
Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  8) 8) 8)

Come DP on Empada and you get prio on end of dreams over Fallow :)


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Lanori on July 15, 2016, 02:28:06 pm
Unfortunately ladies and gents, Erga is right, as is Nizhrak,

its unfortunate, improbable but not impossible.
Just accept it and keep clearing.

While it's tempting to believe in loot-conspiracies etc... it's not at all useful.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Nimo on July 15, 2016, 02:34:56 pm
I heard that having http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=3300 in your inventory drastically increases the dropchance on any desired item.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Empada on July 15, 2016, 02:43:14 pm
Quote
<Space Disco> 1 day

<Chaos> 18 days

<De Profundis> 377 days

Main on Chaos, alt on Space Disco. I'm the luck charm.

If DP wants to hire my services, we can discuss the contract.  8) 8) 8)

Come DP on Empada and you get prio on end of dreams over Fallow :)


LOL

Seems legit!


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Ralicx on July 15, 2016, 03:00:06 pm
Can you drom 2 items of the same loot-table ? Like 2 DFTs or twice the same item on cthun ?

Yes you can. The chance is very low though, about 0.23% on a 21 item table rolled twice; See my previous post.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Alda on July 15, 2016, 03:07:27 pm
I havnt seen a dubble drop in a 40man instances since <inquisitor> times.

But even with all the BWL raiding guilds clearing BWL each week, it kinda seems to have very low drop percent. But it can be chance ofc.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Ralicx on July 15, 2016, 03:13:35 pm
I imagine a player with an account on the test server and some patience could easily verify the information on the database by persisting till they get a double drop from a relevant boss.

When you add up all the double drop chances for all items on the dragons tables its 0.23% x 21 = 4.83% to get any item drop twice; I don't imagine it would take too long if you can insta spawn and insta kill the boss repeatedly.

Alternatively one of the devs could just confirm it.

In addition in my own experience I've seen double drops from a number of 5 man bosses:

2x Dianas Necklace from Cannonmaster in strat
2x Skullforge Reaver from Baron in strat

These are npcs that share the same (n)x2 droptable mechanics with e.g. the dragons and cthun on the database.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Mulva on July 15, 2016, 05:50:18 pm
The problem is that all loot on all three drakes is weighted the same. There should be two different pools of loot on each drake. One that has loot specific to the drake, and one that is shared between all three drakes. Each time you kill a drake it -should- drop one item from the shared pool (most likely T2 gloves but not guaranteed) and one unique item from that drake. We all know this is not the case on VG however.

Here (http://web.archive.org/web/20061125223836/http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/mob.html?wmob=14601) you can see the drop rates of Ebonroc from November 2006. Notice how DFT has a 16.44% chance to drop, while Rejuv Gem only has a 5.48%? You  can see this pattern very easily by looking at the item history from 2006. Rejuv Gem (http://www.guild-angry.org/eqdkp-tbc/viewitem.php?s=26f1e0047dabb7bd1c3246c9bc90f951&i=324), DFT (http://www.guild-angry.org/eqdkp-tbc/viewitem.php?s=26f1e0047dabb7bd1c3246c9bc90f951&i=664), Styleen's Scarab (http://www.guild-angry.org/eqdkp-tbc/viewitem.php?s=26f1e0047dabb7bd1c3246c9bc90f951&i=1319).

Could opposite faction gear dropping be addressed as well? It's so frustrating killing three bosses and only getting one and a half bosses worth of loot to show for it. With both of these fixes I wouldn't really mind running BWL for the 1,000th time. It might actually feel rewarding for a change.

#MakeBlackWingLairGreatAgain

edit: The notion that newer or wearker guilds are somehow rewarded with better loot is beyond ridiculous.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: ssjlouie on July 15, 2016, 06:36:58 pm
I got my DFT on our first BWL run. Sorry


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: iamspogmainerds on July 15, 2016, 06:55:20 pm
Puta has x3 felstrikes and you guys are saying drop rates are fucked?


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: kaylolz on July 15, 2016, 06:59:04 pm

Could opposite faction gear dropping be addressed as well? It's so frustrating killing three bosses and only getting one and a half bosses worth of loot to show for it. With both of these fixes I wouldn't really mind running BWL for the 1,000th time. It might actually feel rewarding for a change.

#MakeBlackWingLairGreatAgain

Honestly this would be one of the biggest fixes possible for mid-end raiding. It is pretty frustrating when bosses that should drop 2 pieces of t2 only drop one piece because the second piece belonged to a shammy/pally, and instead of actually fixing the loot table to not drop items meant for a class your faction can't make, devs just decided to make those items invisible. So not only is the wrong gear dropping, but we can't even disenchant it, and the boss will not be skinable since there is invisible unlootable loot on the boss.

If you fix the loot problems, stop the trash from respawning in suppression room after Broodlord dies, and make the gates to the alchemy lab work, then we would have an almost blizzlike BWL.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Mulva on July 15, 2016, 07:25:11 pm
Puta has x3 felstrikes and you guys are saying drop rates are fucked?

Now this is low-effort shitposting.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: horna on July 15, 2016, 08:25:53 pm
+1

This is seriously bugged


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: wopwop on July 15, 2016, 10:10:11 pm
Dhorn made some post about the 3 dragunskis' loot table. Should be posted on peenix's forum or their github.

However, I think the loot table on VG is broken, especially when it comes to bosses with different loot pools..



Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Mulva on July 15, 2016, 10:23:40 pm
Dhorn made some post about the 3 dragunskis' loot table. Should be posted on peenix's forum or their github.

However, I think the loot table on VG is broken, especially when it comes to bosses with different loot pools..



Yep, this is also observable with the bosses in MC that share loot. Magmadar (http://web.archive.org/web/20070114041325/http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/mob.html?wmob=11982) just as an example.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Rollexx on July 15, 2016, 11:11:14 pm
<Space Disco> just got DFT 2 weeks in a row... but where's that styleens at doe? =[


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: iamspogmainerds on July 16, 2016, 05:01:04 am
Puta has x3 felstrikes and you guys are saying drop rates are fucked?

Now this is low-effort shitposting.
I was at work and on my phone, plz dont hate


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: shaba on November 30, 2016, 01:39:43 am
DP  should change its name to 'rapedbymath'


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: wopwop on November 30, 2016, 03:18:11 am
soo first I thought Zeard made a skill check for drops like DFT and KiS. Everything worked well in the start, played rogus for 2 weeks on H side and got KoS, thedeeps played rogue for 1,5 years and never got it. But after seeing GGC melees getting DFT/kos I'm starting to wonder if I was right...


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: baddestbad on November 30, 2016, 03:56:10 am
Fuck yourself janitor... PS add me on skype :)


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: ohkillem on November 30, 2016, 03:57:06 am
wopwop throwin shade on everyone


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: kaylolz on November 30, 2016, 12:01:54 pm
soo first I thought Zeard made a skill check for drops like DFT and KiS. Everything worked well in the start, played rogus for 2 weeks on H side and got KoS, thedeeps played rogue for 1,5 years and never got it. But after seeing GGC melees getting DFT/kos I'm starting to wonder if I was right...
i feeel like u were misintrepretinggg rngesus's will, it's not that there's like some sort of skillcap, but instead it's just that rngesus wants everyone on the server to have KOTS besides thedeeps ( and watever gay dp horde fgt made this thread to qq in). rngesus does want people to hit thedeeps up onn viber or w/e gay shit that croat uses when azuregos spawns tho.


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: baddestbad on December 01, 2016, 05:40:23 am
It is statistically impossible for zero DFTs to drop in 58 weeks from a boss with a loot table of 21 items. It just cannot be right.
Well presuming its actually 9% droprate like VG database suggests then to not get a DFT 1st run u have a 91% chance (0.91), to not get it 2 weeks in a row its 0.91^2, 3 weeks is 0.91^3 etc.

0.91^58 = 0.00421115 aka ~0.42% so its actually not only statistically possible but its not even "real shit luck" its just "casual bad luck"...

Why even bother with shitty dft when theres priceless loot like
http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=21647
http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=22954
and "soon" http://db.vanillagaming.org/?item=23041


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: Gnoem on December 01, 2016, 11:48:25 am
Define soon :D


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: kaylolz on December 01, 2016, 12:26:24 pm
theedeeps just tryna tactfully ignore the fact that HE STILL DOESNT HAVE KOTS
#hitmeuponviberbitch


Title: Re: Days since DFT dropped
Post by: daeghan on December 02, 2016, 03:47:55 am
#KOTSKrew